Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of the Customs Exchange Rate on Imports and Customs Revenues in Yemen: An Applied Econometric Study of Aden port Customs Office (2016–2025)

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the impact of the customs exchange rate on import volumes and customs revenues in Yemen during the period 2016–2025.

The study relied on annual data obtained from the official records of the Aden Port Customs Office. It adopted both the descriptive-analytical and econometric approaches by applying simple linear regression models to examine the effect of the customs exchange rate on total import volume and total customs revenues. In addition, separate regression models were estimated for a number of major commodities to analyze variations in the degree of responsiveness across commodity sectors.

The findings revealed a statistically significant negative effect of the customs exchange rate on total import volume. The estimated model yielded a coefficient of determination (R² = 0.422), indicating that it explained approximately 42.2% of the variation in import volume during the study period. The results also showed that an increase in the customs exchange rate was associated with a decline in imported quantities. Conversely, no statistically significant effect was found between the customs exchange rate and total customs revenues. The explanatory power of this model was relatively low (R² = 0.076), suggesting that customs revenues are influenced by a range of factors beyond the customs exchange rate.

The study also revealed considerable variation in the responses of different commodity groups. Construction materials and the customs category of sheep and livestock were the most negatively affected in terms of import volumes, whereas commodities such as maize, coal, and poultry feed showed positive and statistically significant effects on customs revenues.